走回举债刺激老路的中国(双语)
中国各大宗商品交易所的交易量激增，是这个信贷泛滥的经济体中投机狂潮的最新例子。从影子银行的兴起、房地产泡沫，到去年的股市崩盘，监管机构一直在艰难地控制市场过度行为，而后者是北京方面通过债务驱动的刺激来支撑增长的一贯做法造成的。为了阻止世界第二大经济体大幅放缓，在中国政府官员的主导下，第一季度信贷出现逾6万亿元人民币的创纪录扩张，之后资金涌入金属市场。
the surge in trading on china’s commodity exchanges is the latest example of speculative frenzy in an economy awash with credit. from the rise of shadow banking, to real estate bubbles and august’s stock market crash, regulators have struggled to contain the excesses resulting from beijing’s habit of supporting growth through debt-fuelled stimulus. the rush into metals markets follows record credit expansion of more than rmb6tn in the first quarter, engineered by officials to prevent a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
这样的情况让国际投资者日益感到担忧。随着中国在全球金融系统中的地位上升，其在全球市场中引发动荡的能力也上升了。然而，批评北京方面再次诉诸信贷创造以促进增长很容易。为政策制定者提出一个有吸引力的替代选项就没那么容易了。
such episodes are a growing concern for international investors. as china’s role in the global financial system grows, so too does its ability to trigger turbulence in global markets. however, it is easy to criticise beijing for resorting once again to credit creation to pump up growth. it is less easy to come up with an attractive alternative for policymakers.
中国巨额债务的风险很明显。相当于国内生产总值(gdp) 240%左右的总债务负担远高于大多数新兴市场，从长期来看明显是不可持续的，尤其是其中相当一部分来自于长期产能过剩领域的亏损国有企业。更让人忧虑的是债务积累的速度——在经济增长放缓的时候，信贷创造依然在加速。
the risks of china’s vast debt pile are apparent. a total debt load equivalent to some 240 per cent of gross domestic product — far higher than most emerging markets — is clearly unsustainable in the long term, especially since a significant proportion is held by lossmaking state-owned enterprises in sectors suffering from chronic overcapacity. even more worrying is the speed at which debt has accumulated — with credit creation accelerating even as economic growth has slowed.
然而投资者显然发现这些风险不如经济崩溃和货币暴跌的危急前景可怕——这种恐惧让全球市场在今年年初陷入了混乱。北京方面1月以来的行动使其进行艰难的经济改革的承诺受到质疑，但这些行动也的确促进了汇率的稳定，使工业利润出现可喜的回升。
yet investors clearly find these risks less frightening than an imminent prospect of the economy crashing and the currency plunging — the fears that sent global markets into a tailspin at the start of the year. beijing’s actions since january have cast doubt on its commitment to difficult economic reforms, but they have also helped to stabilise the exchange rate and led to a welcome pick-up in industrial profits.
此外，发生全面金融危机的风险似乎十分有限。考虑到中国基本封闭的资本账户、高储蓄率（这意味着居民在为企业贷款提供资金）以及中国经济的增长潜力，中国总体债务水平没那么可怕。而且，中国政府还有很大的余地，可以把企业债务（这些债务实际上往往与国有企业或地方政府有关）转移至自己的资产负债表上。而在中国仍然庞大的官方储备支持下，中国政府的资产负债表依然十分强健。
moreover, the risk of a full-blown financial crisis seems limited. china’s overall debt level is less alarming in the context of the country’s largely closed capital account, its high savings rate — which means that households finance lending to corporates — and the economy’s growth potential. there is also considerable scope for the government to shift corporate debts (which in practice often relate to state-owned companies or local government) on to its own balance sheet, which remains robust, backed by still-vast official reserves.
然而，如果中国不构想出全面计划解决企业部门的坏债，上述做法只会推迟这一问题——尽管可以推迟几年。正如国际货币基金组织(imf)所警告的，如果不同时进行亟需的根本产业重组（包括政治敏感产业），中国政府目前的不良贷款财务重组方案（通过债转股和证券化）将是不够的。
however, this will merely defer the problem, albeit for some years, unless china comes up with a comprehensive plan to tackle the corporate sector’s bad debts. as the international monetary fund has warned, the government’s current proposals for financial restructuring of non-performing loans (through debt-for-equity swaps and securitisation) will be insufficient, and possibly counterproductive, unless it also tackles the underlying need for industrial restructuring, including in politically sensitive sectors.
中国经济再平衡是个艰巨的任务。由于当局努力管控这一进程，在可预见的未来继续推出刺激性政策几乎不可避免。重要的是确保这种手段的运用能产生更大回报。中国当局的本能在太多情况下是支持产能过剩行业中的僵尸企业，这对全球的业内竞争对手都产生了影响。然而，医疗、教育、城镇住房与交通、以及艰巨的环境治理，仍然亟需投资。
rebalancing china’s economy is a herculean task and it is almost inevitable that stimulus policies will continue for the foreseeable future as authorities try to manage the process. what is important is to ensure that this is more profitably employed. the authorities’ reflex has too often been to prop up zombie companies in sectors dogged by overcapacity, with effects on industrial rivals across the world. yet investment is still needed in health, education, urban housing and transport, and an enormous environmental clean-up.
即便在最好的情况下，把中国债务负担降至可持续发展的水平，也将用掉近十年时间。同时，全球其他地区可以预见，由于中国无法更早改革和再平衡经济，它们将受到影响。
in the most benign scenario, it will still take the best part of a decade to reduce china’s debt burden to a more sustainable level. in the meantime, the rest of the world can expect to feel the effects of china’s failure to reform and rebalance its economy earlier.